Treasury Yields Rise

Published December 26, 2025

U.S. Treasury yields rose earlier in the holiday-shortened week as investors reacted to the latest economic data. Towards the end of the week, yields moved lower after jobless claims fell more than expected.

On Tuesday, the U.S. Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) announced that the revised estimate for Gross Domestic Product (GDP), a monetary measure of the market value of all goods and services produced in a specific period, increased at a 4.3% annualized rate in the third quarter of 2025. This surpassed economists’ expectations of a 3.2% annualized gain and was higher than the 3.8% increase reported in the second quarter of 2025.

“The economy maintains considerable momentum,” wrote chief North American economist at Capital Economics, Paul Ashworth. “That said, the shutdown could trigger a slowdown in the fourth quarter to nearer 2% annualised.”

The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield opened the week of December 22 at 4.14% and traded as high as 4.21% on Tuesday. The 30-year Treasury bond opened the week at 4.82% and traded as high as 4.87% on Tuesday.

On Wednesday, the U.S. Department of Labor reported that initial claims for unemployment decreased by 10,000 to 214,000 for the week ending December 20. This was less than the 224,000 claims that analysts anticipated. Continuing claims increased by 38,000 to 1.92 million.

"Continued claims remain at a level consistent with a slow pace of hiring but are not sending a signal that hiring conditions have gotten worse," said lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, Nancy Vanden Houten.

The 10-year Treasury note yield finished the week of 12/22 at 4.14%, while the 30-year Treasury note yield finished the week at 4.83%.