Treasury Yields Rise

Published December 5, 2025

U.S. Treasury yields varied early in the week as investors waited for the latest job hiring numbers from the private sector. Yields rose at the end of the week as the latest employment data suggested that future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are likely.

On Wednesday, ADP reported that private sector hiring rose less than expected in November, indicating a weakening labor market. The payroll processing company detailed that private payrolls decreased by 32,000 in November, far below the revised gain of 47,000 in October and below analysts’ expectations of an increase of 40,000.

“Hiring has been choppy of late as employers weather cautious consumers and an uncertain macroeconomic environment,” said chief economist at ADP, Dr. Nela Richardson. “And while November's slowdown was broad-based, it was led by a pullback among small businesses.”

The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield opened the week of December 1 at 4.02% and traded as high as 4.11% on Thursday. The 30-year Treasury bond opened the week at 4.67% and traded as high as 4.77% on Thursday.

On Thursday, the U.S. Department of Labor reported that initial claims for unemployment dropped by 27,000 to 191,000 for the week ending November 29. This was below economists’ estimates of 220,000. Continuing unemployment claims decreased by 4,000 to 1.94 million.

"The latest week for claims data included the Thanksgiving holiday, and holidays often distort claims data, so this release should be taken with a big grain of salt," said chief economist at Comerica Bank, Bill Adams. “The Fed is not happy to see inflation overshooting their target for a fourth year running. But Fed policymakers are likely to see larger risks to the job market than to inflation.”

The 10-year Treasury note yield ended the week of 12/1 at 4.14%, while the 30-year Treasury note yield finished the week at 4.79%.